Ivan Toney netted 20 of Brentford’s 57 Premier League goals this term. Remove his contributions, and the West London club would’ve been equal in goals with Bournemouth and West Ham, both of whom were involved in a relegation battle for most of the 2022/23 EPL season.
Following 232 breaches of the Football Association’s betting rules, Toney received an eight-month suspension and will be inactive from professional competition until January 16, 2024.
As Brentford’s top goalscorer and shining star on the pitch, where does his absence leave the club as they’ll be without his emphatic goal-scoring ability for the first half of the 2023/24 season?
Find a replacement Number 9
Coping without Toney won’t be easy, but it’s the Premier League; nothing comes easy in the world’s most competitive football division. The good news, however, is that Toney’s suspension was inevitable, and Brentford has had more than a year to prepare for the expected punishment. The question is, what could they have up their sleeve?
The simple answer would be to instantly sign a replacement number 9 who could ship 20-plus goals. Unfortunately, as last season’s third top goal scorer, the Bees can’t just purchase Erling Braut Haaland or Harry Kane – the only players sitting above him in the top goal-scoring charts. They could look beyond the EPL, but purchasing high-scoring players from the Championship or overseas won’t guarantee the same performance in an elite-level league.
Been there, done that
Let’s rewind to the start of the season, as similar concerns arose when Christian Eriksen had his foot out the door and eventually joined Manchester United. There was a level of trepidation transmitting through Brentford, but in the long run, the Bees evolved and performed even better.
Now, we aren’t comparing Eriksen to Toney, but Thomas Frank should receive more credit. In Eriksen’s absence, we saw Mathias Jensen shine further upfield, as he became Brentford’s No.1 creator as Toney hung around the goal. It turned into something special; Toney left his assist numbers and playmaking role, but his position closer to goal saw him find the net more often.
Additionally, the back line became stronger. You can argue that Brentford was the fourth-highest team regarding allowed shots per game, but the distance of said shots proved they could frustrate teams into taking riskier chances. Frank, a genius as it will, refused to keep the same formation for longer than five straight games and rotated between 3-5-2 and 4-3-3 the entire season, each of which worked excellently in reserving energy in midfield or wingers.
When the aforementioned shots from afar came, Brentford goalkeepers held the third-best record in shot-stopping from these long distances. And when Toney wasn’t starting, Yoanne Wissa and Bryan Mbeumo shared the spoils as both men scored in every game without him on the team.
So, if you’re wondering how Brentford will cope without Toney, we could argue that the Bees boast one of the strongest qualities in this regard: owning the ability to adapt. Resilience and Plan B are nothing new to Frank. In fact, this squad collected 12 points from 17 games where they surrendered the lead and continuously found a way to grab a point at the least. They lost a mere nine of 38 fixtures in their second season as an EPL team, which is quite remarkable.
No Ivan Toney, No Problem
Betting could be a touchy subject for the Brentford faithful, but I genuinely believe they have nothing to fear without Toney because I’d bet on Thomas Frank any day of the week. There’s a reason why bookmakers haven’t placed the Bees in their expected relegations for next season.
I’d go as far as predicting the best football betting sites for 2023 will favour Brentford to finish in the top 10, at least. And this sentiment remains, with or without Toney. This club, this squad, and the manager can excel without their superstar striker, and it’s been proven repeatedly.
The previously mentioned Eriksen situation is a great example, but if we’re looking for something close to home, just preview the games without Toney.
Most recently, Brentford sailed through West Ham at the GTech Community Stadium; in place of Toney, resting a hamstring injury, two of the Bees front runners found the net as Wissa and Mbeumo stepped up again, as they have done all season long.
Again, Brentford’s 3-1 success over Liverpool without him is starting evidence that Brentford can function without their top scorer, while a memorable 3-1 away victory at Tottenham – the first game missing Toney from the starting XI – solidifies it.
Mbeumo scored a brace versus Spurs, and Wissa found Brentford’s third. Their London rivals haven’t been in the best shape, but this doesn’t remove the outstanding performances from Mbeumo, Wissa, and Kevin Schade as a triple threat in attack.
Wissa is, without a doubt, viewed as a vital team member and forward they can rely on to score goals. A recent contract renewal suggests the Congolese international could be allowed shine as Toney is sidelined.
Schade is another talent – arriving from Freiburg in January – that cannot be ignored. Combine this signing with the Wissa renewal, and we’ve already witnessed Frank’s preparation for life without Toney.
And, of course, Mbeumo, who found the net nine times last season, and 2022’s signing of Keane Lewis-Potter, the Bees aren’t short of attacking prowess. They own goal scorers and a head coach in Frank that’s capable, on a tactical level, of helping these players score.
We shouldn’t rule out any summer transfer signings, though. A diverse, forward option through the middle wouldn’t be the worst decision.
However, new signing or not, Brentford’s future shouldn’t result in hysteria amongst critics. This club will see the third-best EPL striker resume his position in January 2024. It’ll be a huge moment once the ban is up, but also an incredible period for other names to step up in the meantime.